tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7888208737262619468.post2485610159595611078..comments2023-10-11T01:45:28.909-07:00Comments on The Commodity Strategist: NickelUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7888208737262619468.post-21290111475087231272016-03-05T18:01:52.217-08:002016-03-05T18:01:52.217-08:00Yes. That said, stylistically, Putin is tough to ...Yes. That said, stylistically, Putin is tough to swallow on occasion. <br /><br />Moreover, regardless of the broader geopolitical context, economic property rights in Russia are far from secure. I suppose that means drilling down and figuring out which assets are safe from an arbitrary taking and which are not.<br /><br />Hmm..... Erik Poolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02442592238782846163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7888208737262619468.post-57419195137668428422016-03-05T17:17:15.300-08:002016-03-05T17:17:15.300-08:00Thanks for the kind words. If you really feel that...Thanks for the kind words. If you really feel that the Russian geopolitical situations will improve, all Russian assets are a screaming buy.The Commodity Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11518485068505658443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7888208737262619468.post-17700767126375632632016-03-05T15:13:46.444-08:002016-03-05T15:13:46.444-08:00Hei,
Love the site. For a 'quant', I rec...Hei,<br /><br />Love the site. For a 'quant', I reckon your feel, your intuition for socio-politics is rather solid. So much better than so many pundits whose sectarian bias seems to colour far too much analysis.<br /><br />Am a long-suffering shareholder of Sherritt International here which I bought for the lateritic project Ambatovy in Madagascar as well as a play levered to the inevitable thawing of relations between the USA and Cuba. Sherritt has oil, nickel and energy assets in Cuba. <br /><br />Clearly, I underestimated that extent of the collapse in the relevant commodity prices but reckon that the junk-rated Sherritt corporate debt will survive and will pay in relative terms handsomely. Diversifying into Norilsk strikes me as a good idea, especially I expect the Crimean issue to gradually resolve itself without significant further drama. <br /><br />Must admit that I tend to buck against anything that relies on a forecast longer than 9 to 12 months. The only forecasting in economics that works with any kind of useful consistency beyond a few months is US yield curve recession recasting and even that appears to work only for the USA. <br /><br />It would be interesting to acquire longer time series and test the forward ten year return model with historic out-of-sample forecasts. I am guessing/assuming that that has not been done already. <br /><br />There are certainly a number of ways of motivating the model. Although thinking about the historic path of oil prices, I sometimes wonder if a 10 year return horizon will always be sufficiently long. <br /><br />I could ramble on. Thanks for the blog; as an overseas oil and gas exploration specialized investor, this blog is the best find I have made in a long time. h/t to Ben Bernanke. <br /><br />10^3 thanks -Erik<br /><br />Erik Poolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02442592238782846163noreply@blogger.com