News about Russia/US

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that US administration officials were planning for a Trump-Putin summit. This led to a rally in Russian stocks (including Norilsk). If true, it might signify a shift in western-Russian relations. If that happens, the Russian stock market has MUCH more to climb. Readers of this blog know that I have been saying for awhile that the current situation is in no one's interest. Let's go a little deeper.
For those readers not located in the US (most of you) here's a little background on how leaks work in the US government...
 There are three sources of leaks. One is ambitious politicians and officials who want to curry favor with journalists. By feeding the journalists inside information, they help both the politicians' and the journalists' careers. Most of these leaks concern things that are being planned or discussed inside the government. They are usually accurate and not embarrassing.
A second source is leaks that are staged by the highest levels as a trial balloon for policies they are considering. Ex-pres Obama would run things by the editorial staff of the New York Times before he took action.
The third type of leak is by an official who wants to hurt someone. Either he is trying to get back at an enemy or he is genuinely concerned that bad things are being done. Since the Washington establishment hate Trump and all he stands for, there has been a lot of this going around.
I think the WSJ leak about a summit was the second type. First, it wasn't embarrassing or derogatory. Such a summit is a logical thing to do, but administration officials are probably concerned that any dealing with Russia could ignite a firestorm. It was leaked to a somewhat friendly source, the WSJ, who could be counted on to analyze it rationally. So I believe this is the real deal and can actually happen.
If I'm right about this, here's is what we can expect to see:
- Russia being brought into the emerging North Korean solution. This is the major short run diplomatic effort, and Russia has a real interest.
- Oil prices topping out. This may have already happened.
- A reduction in provocations, particularly military ones. I do not think this has happened yet.

more to come...

Stopped out of the rest of my corn this morning

Nice trade though.
The crop looks quite good at this point. I continue to believe that demand for corn is growing and will eventually push up prices. However, there is no fighting the US crop during the growing season. So I'll probably be out till the fall.
Tactically, this shows the virtue of scaling out instead of always letting your profits run. Lesson confirmed.