The only consistent very long term series I could find for US eggs is the PPI. So this is an index with 1993 = 100. The graph has a good fit though.
x-axis - PPI for eggs deflated for inflation and value of the $US.
y-axis - change in deflated price in next ten years.
so the last point on the graph is on May 2006.
The red line is where we are in May 2016.
PPI = purchaser price index?
ReplyDeleteIt would be interesting to see a straight time series chart of real egg prices. I am guessing that the overall trend is down.
See for example: https://twitter.com/Mark_J_Perry/status/457512332709466112
In other words, productivity gains are being passed on almost immediately to consumers due to the competitive structure of the sector.
For your 10 years out real commodity price change model to work, one would have to adjust for productivity gains, which are most likely permanent. The time series could be used to estimate a trend and then prices could be adjusted so only the market driven cyclical component remains.
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