Russia

I don't normally comment on macro stuff, but here's one...
I simply do not understand what Putin is thinking about geopolitics. He seems to be going out of his way to antagonize nations with natural alignment of interests. It seems obvious to me that Russia's long term security problem, if it has one, is hegemony by the US or China. Mind you, I really do not even think that's a real problem, but it's possible.
If so, Russia's natural friend here is Europe. There is also a natural economic relationship as well. So why is he refighting the cold war? And while we are questioning things, why is he emphasizing the natural resources industries over all other? Russia has an immense store of human capital in tech. Most people know that Russian emigres have created great value in the US (for example, Google and Ethereum). He could have developed this locally.
Of course, I'm just a speculator. I don't make the rules, I just try to forecast what they foretell.