What I Don't Trade

When I was just starting out in this business, I was a junior economic analyst at a large multinational. Most of my job was writing boilerplate reports on the same stuff over and over. No likey. However, some of the senior guys were fairly smart, and I did learn some stuff from them. One thing is: forecasting markets is easier, the smaller the market. For example, forecasting the overall rate of inflation is almost impossible (That's why the Fed has edged toward a reactive rather than a proactive mode.). OTOH, forecasting the price of tinplate is doable. The most accurate econometric model I ever built was one forecasting the price of shrimp. It was a beautiful example of an academic model, three equations and solved with two stage least squares (That was a hot technique at the time.). There was no futures market in shrimp, and no way to hedge (Seafood rots.). But we had a shrimp subsidiary, and I probably had the only model in the world.
I have mostly kept this to heart. I avoid the big macro futures: gold, bonds, S&P, even copper. These markets are too important, and there is too much intellectual firepower aimed at them. OTOH, there are few people looking at things like iridium and fluorspar. If you follow my articles on Seeking Alpha, you may note that they are about things like vanadium (my largest current position) and rhodium (out now).
Why is this so? Simply because there are fewer eyes and minds looking at it. For example, I'm bearish on gold, but what can I realistically add to the gold conversation. There are probably tens of thousands of smart and knowledgable people who have done my analysis and more. Sometimes the most important thing about playing a game is knowing when to not play.
Of course there are exceptions. Occasionally even the big markets get to ridiculous levels. This is usually because of macro news flow combined with momentum trading. That's why I'm now long soybeans. Here's one from today...

Their Soybeans Piling Up, Farmers Hope Trade War Ends Before Beans Rot

New York Times · 6 hours ago

So I'm trading ZS from the long side. BTW, I am trading this actively, and I don't update this blog all the time. So read it, but make your own trading decisions.