Monday, February 10, 2020

Is the Coronavirus Burning Itself Out?


This data is now being updated in the post "New Coronavirus Statistics."

This data is no longer updated...

The Chinese policy appears to be: let the epidemic in Hubei burn itself out, but protect the rest of the country. This may be starting to work. Here's data from the WHO on new Chinese cases...

The Chinese government is now reporting clinically diagnosed as well as laboratory diagnosed cases. However, it appears that all the cases ex-Hubei are laboratory diagnosed. Therefore this table, which is laboratory only, probably gives an OK estimate of the trend.


Hubeitotalex-Hubei
New Cases ex-Hubei
Feb 17153118214668
Feb 29074144115337669
Feb 311177172386061724
Feb 413522204716949888
Feb 516678243637685736
Feb 619665280608395710
Feb 722112312119099704
Feb 824953345989645546
Feb 9271003725110151506
Feb 10296314023510604453
Feb 11               31728               42708               10980                   296
Feb 12               33366               44730               11364                   384
Feb 13               34874               46550               11675                   311
Feb 14               36602               48548               11946                   275
Feb 15               37884               50054               12170                   224
Feb 16               38839               51174               12335                   165
If the trend ex-Hubei can continue, we may be coming to the end. Of course, if the epidemic spreads to other countries, all bets are off.

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