Using mathematical modeling from data of both coronavirus and previous epidemics, the WHO estimates that the fatality rate is 0.3% to 1.0%. The reason this is lower than reported is that the model attempts to take into account mild cases that have not been reported.
Feb. 20
The Chinese keep changing the way they categorize various type of cases of the disease. They say that for now they are including all cases that are "suspected" of being covid-19. This is presumably why the number of reported cases has jumped today (1,676). As the patients get tested, they feel that some will be found to suffer from other ailments and taken out of this count. For the time being I am using the consistent series of confirmed cases.
For those who have just come: The Chinese policy appears to be: let the epidemic in Hubei burn itself out, but protect the rest of the country. This may be starting to work. Here's data from the WHO on new Chinese cases...
Confirmed Cases Only
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