Ten Year Forward Graphs


The full file is in two parts Click First Half and Second Half to view them.


These charts are used to determine long run value for commodities. As an example, here's a monthly graph of tin from 1980 through 2015:

Here is how this works: The horizontal axis is the price of the commodity price in 2015$. It is adjusted for both inflation and the change in value of the $US. The vertical axis is the forward ten year return. So a dot on the graph, say from June 1999, is the price on June 1999 and the change in price from June 1999 to June 2009. Obviously this stops in 2005, since I don’t know forward ten year returns from then on. The red vertical line is where we are non Nov 30, 2015.

Note that the axes are on a log scale. Also note that the ten year return is expressed in fractions, not percentage. So a "1.5" means the price will be 50% higher in ten years.


This graph is forecasting that inflation-adjusted tin prices will decrease to about 0.6 of what they are now in the next ten years.

1 comment:

  1. Download does work but does not open to a readable file, i get this in differend brouwsers:



    <script src="data:application/x-javascript,%2F%2A%21%20jQuery%20v1%2E11%2E0%20%7C%20%28c%29%202005%2C%202014%20jQuery%20Foundation%2C%20Inc%2E%20%7C%20jquery%2Eorg%2Flicense%20%2A%2F%0A%21function%28a%2Cb%29%7B%22object%22%3D%3Dtypeof%20module%26%26%22object%22%3D%3Dtypeof%20module%2Eexports%3Fmodule%2Eexports%3Da%2Edocument%3Fb%28a%2C%210%29%3Afunction%28a%29%7Bif%28%21a%2Edocument%29throw%20new%20Error%28%22jQuery%20requires%20a


    Maybe you can mak a pdf file of it?

    ReplyDelete

Comments are welcome, although I can't promise to answer every question.