Friday, February 19, 2016

How are the Blog Positions Doing

I started this blog in October of 2015. About a month later, I started making actual recommendations. In all cases, I actually put my own money in these recommendations. Here's a little more detail about how I invest.

- I only look at notional position size. Leverage does not appeal to me. This means that I normally trade smaller commodity positions than most people. I do the same on the short side.
- All my equity trades are alpha-based. Basically I look at the trade vs. the ETF SPY. I do have another account in which I have some broad-based mutual funds, but that is not the point of this blog. BTW, I have held one mutual fund for over 30 years!

So let's evaluate the trades I have on here:

Long Southern Peru Copper, short copper metal. Put on Nov 13, 2015. This has done decently:
SCCO   -3.5%
SPY      -7.6%
Copper -1.2%  >> net gain of 5%

Long Dean Foods. Put on Dec 12, 2015. This has been my big winner:
DF         +19.9%
SPY       -5.1%  >> net gain of 25% wahoo!

Long Alcoa Preferred. Put on Oct 26, 2015:
AApreferred -5.2% (incl pref div)
SPY              -6.3%  >> net gain of 1%

Long Dec 2018 Crude (WTI)
I have traded this position quite a bit, but the original was put on on Dec 7, 2015 at $53. So it has a loss of -12.5%.

I also have on a cocoa options position. This is rather complicated, and I'm not going into all the details. It's basically short gamma, neutral delta.

I hope to have most of these on for much longer. I also plan to buy Nickel either using the metal or Norilsk. More in the next post.

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