Do Over on the Fertilizers

There's a saying among data analysts that most of the work is in getting the data in the right form. After that the analysis is usually easy. That was my problem, but I now have it solved. So here are the 10-year forward graphs for the fertilizers:

Urea seems fairly valued.

Potassium and phosphate do not graph well. The problem is that prices for these rose very sharply in 2008/9 and have only retraced part of the move up. Since the 10-year graph stops in 2006, the current price is off the charts. I suppose that means that there is more downside to come. I'm not getting involved. Here are the charts FWIW: