A while back I mentioned that I was going to trade cocoa from the long side. I thought that arrivals from the Ivory Coast were going to be light for the first part of the season. There is really no crop problem; it's just one of timing. However, the market can get upset on simply that. In cocoa most of the speculators have no fundamental crop information. They just see the published numbers. When those look bullish, they buy.
It's getting a little late in the game for this. Rainfall in the cocoa zone has been close to average, so I really do not see a big fundamental move. We are at the top of a long held trading range. So if we break out, there could be a lot of technical buying. I'm hoping for that, and an eventual long->short.
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