As of the May 14 report, corn planting was about even with the five year average. So that's one risk that has passed. The weather for most of the corn belt is expected to be average for the rest of the month. So we probably won't get another scare until and unless we get abnormal heat later in the season.
OTOH, demand for US corn is still pretty good. And acreage is way down. So I doubt the market can have a steep decline until the crop is made. I'm keeping some of my position and hope to add on weakness.
So I really know how to time Lynas! Just as I wrote the post, the stock took a deep dive. The trigger was a report in a Malaysian online newspaper saying that some local officials wanted to look again at the risk in Lynas's facility. I read it, and it seemed like the same old guys saying the same old things. Is it possible that the new regime will give into them? Like I said a few days ago, I don't think so.
- There really is very little risk, and
- Malaysia needs to show it believes in the rule of law.
I'm going to wait this one out. Time will tell.
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